Horse Race Handicapping For Beginners

There is probably no sport more exciting to bet on than the sport of kings, having a wager as the thoroughbreds thunder down the stretch is sure to get your heart pounding. Unfortunately there is probably no form of gambling that’s harder to make money at than horse race handicapping. Its certainly not due to a lack of the number of races, on any Saturday thanks to simulcast wagering you might have over 200 races to chose from.

Horse racing is a parimutuel system that functions similar to the stock market. Player perceptions of each horse are responsible for the odds moving up or down. In order to try and get a overlay or a horse who’s odds are greater than what they should be you have to consider how these perceptions are formed by information. Therefore just like any form of gambling you have to be able to filter the obvious information and figure out where reality and perceptions are not accurate when horse race handicapping.

Lets look at the favorite, this in a lot of cases will be a horse who won his last race or had a very good effort. Everyone can see that last race in the racing form or program, even a grey haired granny betting $2 on the nose can tell you that horse looks good. The favorite will be written up in the form and most likely picked by handicappers in the racing program. Commentators at the track will probably talk about how good he looks. What are the odds that this horse will be a overlay? Slim and none as everyone has the book on him. Don’t get me wrong the favorite has a good chance to win and one of the toughest task when handicapping horse races is identifying false favorites.

The horses most recent race is just that, its not a microcosm of a horses racing career. Giving the most recent race to much value maybe the biggest mistake rookie horse race handicappers make. If you want to be different from 95% of horse handicappers work from the bottom up. This will give you a better understanding of how a horse has developed into the current race. By doing this you stand a far better chance of finding information that the public over looked.

You might want to consider a horse who’s last race looks less than desirable. If you can find an excuse as to why the horse didn’t run or if the odds are good enough you can throw that bad race out. While handicapping a turf race one day from the bottom up I found a horse that was competitive in the past around today’s level but was making only his 2nd start of the year. At first glance the horses first race of the year looked terrible losing the race by over 20 lengths. Looking a little closer you could see he had shown speed and was the leader at the 1/4. It was obvious the jockey had given up once falling back. The key was in scanning the turf records he was the only horse in a ten horse field that had a win on turf. His turf win line did not show in the form. He had a 6 furlong workout after the 1st race which added to his fitness. Thanks to some shippers who were dropping the price was 10-1, needless to say he romped. I cashed and wished they were all that easy.

The above example is not that you should look for all horses with speed, 2nd off lay off, win on turf…ect, because handicapping is not a exact science, its more to show that  you have to find something or believe the public is overlooking something before you bet a horse. You should think about this before you go to the window. You might want to try making your own odds so you can quickly see if your getting a overlay.

Developing Odds When Horse Race Handicapping

To make it easy I’m using a 5 horse field with the estimated % you give each horse to win.

1. 20%
2. 10%
3. 5%
4. 40%
5. 25%

From Here its Easy
DIVIDE EACH % into 100 AND SUBTRACT 1

1. 20% 100/20=5, 5-1=4 your odds for horse #1 4-1
2. 10% 100/10=10, 10-1=9 your odds for horse #2 9-1
3. 5% 100/5=20, 20-1=19 your odds for horse #3 19-1
4. 40% 100/35=2.5, 2.5-1=1.5 your odds for horse #4 1.5-1
5. 25% 100/25=4, 4-1=3 your odds for horse #5 3-1

Now just scan the odds board if horse #1 is 6-1 you have yourself a overlay!

Quick Tip
Your more likely to find good overlays handicapping horse races with large fields. In a 12 horse field the public is forced to process twice as much information compared to a 6 horse field. The more information they are forced to process in 20-30 minutes, the greater a chance there is for a mistake to be made.